U.S. Treasury yield curves have normalized after prolonged inversion, with the 2s/10s and 3-Month/10-Year constructs now turning positive. Federal Reserve rate cuts and a macro narrative shifting ...

The inverted yield curve is one of the more reliable recession indicators. I discussed it at length last December. At that point, we had not yet seen a full inversion. Now we have, and it appears the ...

As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow's book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market's expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk ...

A key indicator of a recession flashed a warning light two years ago. That metric once had a perfect record, but there hasn't been a crash yet. Our colleagues at The Indicator From Planet Money, ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has ...

Treasury yields are the annual returns on debt obligations by the U.S. government. Treasury prices and yields are inversely related; higher demand increases prices and leads to lower yields. An upward ...

SANTA ANA, Calif. — Consumers and corporate chieftains alike should check an economic flare the bond market sent up on Tuesday. Traders on Tuesday demanded higher yields on U.S. Treasury bonds ...

The 10-year Treasury yield passed below that of the 3-month note in Wednesday trading. In market lingo, that's known as an "inverted yield curve," and it's had a sterling prediction record. While ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest... Can the yield curve still predict recessions? Two years ...

Shorter-term US Treasury yields have fallen, while yields on longer-dated bonds could remain elevated, thanks to the threat of higher inflation and investor concerns surrounding the federal deficit.