Your friend says to you: "I bet you $100 that in 2016 a Democrat will be elected as president of the USA." Would you take such a wager? Why or why not? You might think gambling is wrong. You might ...

For those who predict the distant future, there are two traps to avoid. One is to assume human nature will change dramatically and that people will abandon things embedded in their souls, such as ...

A fox, a hedgehog and an LLM – it sounds like the beginning of a joke, but this is in fact the introduction to a topic that is consuming the attention of Philip Tetlock, psychology professor, ...

No one can reliably predict the future – not even Harvey, Claude, Paxton, or any of those other fast-talking, self-assured ...

Mathematicians may have a better way to measure agreement across different datasets. Agreement affects reproducibility, meta-analysis, and prediction to fill in missing data points. We need a more ...

It's impossible to predict the future, but humans can't help themselves. From the economy to the presidency to the Super Bowl, educated and intelligent people promise insight yet repeatedly fail by ...

For millennia, humans have sought new ways of predicting the future, leading to such methods as the crystal ball, star charts and even tea leaf reading. Luckily, the modern business leader has better ...

The origin of medical ethics often boils down to the now-common expression “do no harm.” While an updated version of the Hippocratic Oath is still administered to many physicians as they begin their ...

Picture this. It's the early 1970s, and futurists are sitting in wood-paneled offices predicting a world of flying cars, robot butlers, and meals in pill form. Most of those visions turned into ...