We develop methodology to bridge scenario analysis and risk forecasting, leveraging their respective strengths in policy settings. The methodology, rooted in Bayesian analysis, addresses the ...

A new study introduces a global probabilistic forecasting model that predicts when and where ionospheric disturbances—measured by the Rate of total electron content (TEC) Index (ROTI)—are likely to ...

A Technical Assistance (TA) mission was conducted in Guatemala City, Guatemala, from June 12 to 16, 2023, to assist the authorities with the statistical component of liquidity management. The TA ...

Much like the invigorating passage of a strong cold front, major changes are afoot in the weather forecasting community. And the end game is nothing short of revolutionary: an entirely new way to ...