The yield curve is not easily understood, but it is important in giving us a good look at what is happening in the economy. Not surprisingly, Austrian ...

America celebrated Independence Day with a bang in the stock market this week, as we witnessed record numbers yet again. This impressive performance coincided with a rally in the back end of the yield ...

There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

When the US Treasury yield curve inverts (short rates rise above long rates) the shift is widely viewed as a reliable forecast that a recession is near. The curve has been inverted since July 2022, ...

The US 10-year Treasury yield has been below the 3-month yield since November 2022. This rare yield inversion has preceded each recession since 1982, with no false signals. In past cycles, the US Fed ...

There’s been a major change in one of the bond market’s favorite indicators: the yield curve. After roughly two years of “inversion,” yields are now behaving like they do most of the time, with longer ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted, meaning short-term interest rates on treasury bonds were unusually higher than long term rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has come. A key ...